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Over the last month or so the NL East has gotten even tighter than it was over the first few months of the season and with the way the top three teams have been playing, it only figures to stay a tight race. Each of the three top teams are playing well enough to hang in the race (even though the Phillies have struggled this month) and none of the three are playing well enough to run away with it just yet. Let’s break it down.

First, let’s get the Braves and the Nationals out of the way. The Braves unofficially were going nowhere fast this season after having been riddled with injuries and they officially bowed out of the race today with the trade of Mark Teixeira to the Angels. Casey Kotchman is a good player, but not even close to the level of Teixeira and it is fairly obvious that the Braves were getting something for Teixeira (who is a free agent after the season) while they still could. This team is going to be good (and soon) with players like Kotchman, Yunel Escobar, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. But they are going to have to continue to get younger around the diamond as Smoltz, Glavine and Chipper don’t have all that many years left and Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton haven’t been able to stay healthy for full seasons Putting Hudson in the same sentence as Hampton in regards to their injury histories is a little unfair, but Hudson may even need Tommy John surgery after his latest setback. But the Braves do have a good foundation and won’t be an easy victory from here on out despite the fact that they are finished this year.

The Nationals are in shambles. They have had an even worse season than they anticipated and they have serious question marks all over the field. Ryan Zimmerman is clearly their anchor and they are hoping for good things from Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes (when he returns from the DL), but there really isn’t all that much else to talk about on this roster. They really need to build up their farm system and hope that some of their young pitching develops nicely. Otherwise, they will remain in the basement of the NL East.

Now for the big guns: the Marlins, Phillies and Mets. Each have their flaws. The Marlins are young and inexperienced and have a negative run differential. The Phillies have less than perfect starting pitching and an inconsistent offense. The Mets have an aging lineup and questions in their rotation and bullpen (although their rotation is the best of the group). This race is going to come down to who can manage their flaws the best.

Everyone (including me) keeps expecting the Marlins to fold because they are so young and they win ugly, but they haven’t yet so after a while they stop being a fluke and we have to accept the fact that they aren’t going anywhere. They have the kind of team makeup that will allow them to hang with the Phillies and the Mets and they have one of the most dangerous middle infields in the game in Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez. They have a winning record (5-4) against the Phillies and are 3-4 against the Mets. They do have the most games remaining against the other two, 20 (including a three game series to end the season at Shea), and most games against teams with winning records, 33. They are going to be a good team in years to come, but their schedule doesn’t favor them and I just don’t think they have the horses this year.

The Phillies have the fewest games against the other two contenders, 14, but do still have 25 games against teams with winning records. This team has been maddeningly inconsistent over the past few months pulling out a gutsy win one night (like the comeback against the Mets last week) and then not get any hits the next three. For as much billing as the offense has gotten, they have remained quite inconsistent (with Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins not themselves) and the rotation could be best described as much maligned. Through it all, however, they have remained at or near the top of the division and seem as though they have a run in them. Whether they go on one or not is yet to be seen, but they are certainly capable. In order for them to win the division this year though the offense certainly has to carry them and they need to get better performances from Brett Myers, who pitched great tonight, and Joe Blanton. Jimmy Rollins needs to start being Jimmy Rollins (and stop this crap where he causes distractions) and Chase Utley needs to get back to being the MVP candidate he began the season as (although word on Philadelphia talk radio - Eskin - is that he’s got a hip injury that is going to bother him the rest of the season). They certainly have the talent, but need to put it together.

July has certainly been the month for New York baseball. The Mets have made a big run to get back into the NL East race, ditto the Yankees for the AL East race and the All-Star game and Home Run Derby were truly the spectacles that everyone hoped. I’m not sure what has gotten into the Mets. This is the same team that struggled to hover around the .500 mark all season until right before the All-Star break and essentially the same team that collapsed at the end of last year. Everyone points to the change in manager, and that has certainly seemed to give them some new energy. We can’t forget though that this is still the same team that has struggled mightily at times this season. They certainly have a lot of talent with Wright, Reyes, Santana, Beltran and certainly one of the hottest hitters on the planet in Carlos Delgado. But they still have question marks at the corner outfield positions, in the bullpen and some rising concern in the rotation with Pedro still in the Dominican Republic and John Maine having to leave the game last night. Oliver Perez is extremely talented, but has never remained overly consistent and Mike Pelfrey has pitched well, but is just as young and inexperienced as most of the Marlins pitching staff. It is clearly the best staff of the three, but still has some question marks.

Basically, it is going to boil down to who can hang on and fight for the most games. All three teams have shown that they can fight for wins and they are going to have to continue to do so. All three teams have major question marks all over the field, but all three have talent as well. I do think that the Phillies have the most talent across the board, but do they have the stomach for it? The Mets have already made a great run, do they have enough left to put the other guys away? The Marlins have shown their mettle in close games, but can they continue the magic? This is certainly going to be a fun race down the stretch especially with plenty of divisional games left. My pick is for the Phillies talent to prevail over the Mets pitching and the Marlins exuberance, but that’s why they play the games.

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